At school
Your best friend walked past you this morning without saying anything. You have been worrying about it all day.
What do you do?
Step 1: What Would You Do?
There is often more than one good answer. Pick one and see what happens.
In a group project
Somebody in your group says an animal you are researching is the fastest in the world. You are not sure that is right.
What do you do?
Step 2: What That Was
The name for what you just worked out.
Guessing is fine. Most of what anybody thinks is a guess. The trouble starts when a guess is said like a fact.
Knowing has something behind it
You know it rained because the ground is wet and you were there. That is evidence.
The useful question
Ask yourself: what would show me I am wrong? If nothing would, you are not really thinking about it.
Step 3: Try It
These ones do have right answers.
Know It or Guess It?
Tap a card, then tap the column it belongs in.
Which of these do you actually know, and which are you guessing?
Tap something to move it.
- Empty
- Empty
Step 4: Quick Check
Two questions, then you are done.
Question 1 of 2
You are sure a friend is annoyed with you. What would tell you whether you are right?
Question 2 of 2
Somebody says: "Nothing could ever change my mind about this." What does that tell you?
Step 5: Your Life Mission
Something to do away from the screen. Nobody is checking.
Two words
- For one day, notice when you are about to state a guess as a fact.
- Say "I think" in front of it.
- Count how many times you had to.
Why: The count is usually surprising, and that surprise is the lesson.
For a grown-up: Do the count yourself for the same day and compare. Adults do it more than children, mostly with confidence.
Step 6: What You Learned
- Guessing is fine. Saying a guess like a fact is not.
- What you see is knowing. Why it happened is usually a guess.
- Ask: what would show me I am wrong?
For the grown-up
The distinction here is between observation and inference, and it is the foundation for the media-literacy work in the Online & AI band. Naming it early, on wet pavements and late friends, means the skill exists before it has to survive a political argument.
Model it out loud with your own uncertainty — "I think the bus is late, but I do not actually know" — because children mostly hear adults state guesses as facts all day.
The "what would change my mind?" question is the single most portable thing in this chapter. It works on homework, on arguments, and eventually on advertising.